The Re-Emergence of Iran

The success of P5+1 discussion around Iran has had a ripple effect across the entire Middle East. Its not so easy to correlate the re-emergence of Iran with the collapse in oil prices - which has been largely driven by Saudi - but the emergence of Iran has changed the status quo and its full effects have really still to be seen.

With Turkey - a long time NATO member - having applied for membership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, makes it clear that the next hundred years belongs very definitely to the East. Middle Eastern oil will flow east not west, as the west slowly but definitively seeks to make alternative energy the new conventional. Iran has also applied for membership of SCO, as has Egypt, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan and Pakistan.  In the long run SCO could emerge the NATO of the East.

Within this context, which includes the struggle in Iraq over KRG and struggle in Turkey over what could become the Greater Republic of Kurdistan, the emergence of Iran is just one factor in an other wise massive realignment of interests.  Similarly, with the New Silk Road running from Shanghai to London, and with Russia beginning to play a strategic role - it is clear that the re-emergence of Iran is in fact just the tip of the Ice Berg.

The world is changing.  The Yuan is being established as a reserve currency and Saudi faces its biggest crisis in many years. Iraq is struggling to exist and the future of Syria is still undetermined. Financial crisis in 2016 - or at least a very considerable correction - means fewer resources to go around and yet population increases continue unabated.

Iran, which holds an extremely strategic location, therefore might emerge as part of the new Turkish, Iran, Russia, Indian, SCO block.  As it does, the pack of cards will be completely reshuffled and the fall out is likely to define much of the newt century.